Maharashtra Lok Sabha Elections Opinion Poll

NDTV's opinion poll shows that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance will win in Maharashtra, making major gains at the cost of the Congress-NCP combine which has ruled the state since 1999.

The BJP and Shiv Sena are expected to win 36 of the state's 48 seats, a massive gain of 16 since the last parliamentary election in 2009. The Congress and the NCP are likely to win 10 seats. That is 15 less than the seats they currently hold.

The BJP and Sena may have done better if the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena had stayed out of the contest. Raj Thackeray's party is expected to win one seat this time, with a vote-share of 4 per cent.

 The BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI (Athavale) alliance is expected to win 6-7 more seats than the ruling Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra. According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker, the BJP-Shiv Sena and RPI (A) alliance is projected to win 23-29 seats, if the Lok Sabha elections are held today. The ruling Congress-NCP combine is projected to get 16-22 seats according to the seat projections by Dr Rajeeva Kharandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Chennai Maharashtra has a total 48 Lok Sabha seats and others are expected to get 1-5 seats.

In India's second politically most important state, the BJP-Shiv Sena - RPI (Athavale) combine seems to have established a clear lead over the ruling Congress-NCP alliance. According to survey conducted in the third week of February, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) is expected to get 42 per cent votes. The Congress-NCP alliance is likely to get 36 per cent votes.

In the tracker survey conducted in January, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) combine had got 44 per cent votes and the Congress-NCP combine had got 35 per cent votes. In the latest survey the BJP-SS-RPI (A) combine has lost 2 per cent votes and the Congress-NCP alliance has gained 1 per cent votes.

The AAP has maintained its 5 per cent vote share even in the latest survey. The MNS has gained 2 per cent votes when compared to its just 2 per cent vote share in January. The others are projected to get 9 per cent votes.

In a party-wise estimate, the BJP's vote share has declined since the last survey. But, its oldest ally Shiv Sena's share has gone up. The Congress is doing better than the NCP.

In January survey, the BJP had got 36 per cent vote share. It has now come down to 29 per cent. The Shiv Sena had gone just 6 per cent in January. It has now gone up to 11 per cent. The RPI (A) has retained its 2 per cent projected vote share. The Congress has lost just 1 per cent vote share. It was 29 per cent in January. It has now come down by 1 per cent. During the same period the NCP has gained 2 per cent votes.

Undecided voters in July - 2013 was 27 per cent. It was 11 per cent in January this year. It now stands at 15 per cent.

Source : NDTV and IBNlive